China Drying News reported that in 2009 and 2010, China and the world have ushered in the release of polyethylene production capacity. The domestic supply of polyethylene, including plastics, has been extremely loose, and petrochemical manufacturers and social inventories have continued to increase. From the second half of 2010 to the first nine months of 2011, the polyethylene inventory has accumulated to a very high level. The registered warehouse receipts for plastics futures also set a record of more than 55,000 hands in September 2011. Since the launch of new production capacity has a one-time feature, and the monthly output has an upper limit has been basically determined, while the end of the industry chain consumption is growing, the demand for plastic is also growing. Starting from September 2011, new supply (including imports to Hong Kong and national production) began to form a substantial gap relative to demand (process demand and export demand). Since September 2011, in addition to February 2012, new supply in other months has a gap in demand, which is the total stock from September 2011 (here refers to including petrochemical inventory, social inventory, port inventory and futures The main reason for the continuous decline in the total stock of stocks, that is, September 2011, was a turning point. The increase in passive total stocks brought about by new plastic production capacity has shifted to the stage of decline in passive total stocks.
It should be pointed out that because of the large absolute amount of inventory, a passive decline in inventory does not mean that prices will rise. The increase in social stocks from the end of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012 corresponds to the increase in prices. Petrochemical stocks have less influence on prices than social stocks, and generally have an inverse correlation with price changes. When petrochemical inventories are high, the pressure from petrochemical sales companies will increase and the prices will be under pressure. Conversely, if the stocks are low, petrochemical manufacturers have the conditions to increase prices.
Demand for flat supply increased significantly
The total supply of domestic plastics in the first 10 months of this year was approximately 3.13 million tons, a slight decrease from the 3.15 million tons in the same period of last year. According to estimates by the author, the national production for the whole year is about 3.9 million tons, which is basically the same as last year. In the first nine months of this year, cumulative imports to Hong Kong amounted to 1,690,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. The annual import volume to Hong Kong is expected to be 2.37 million tons, which is about 3.5% lower than last year's 2.47 million tons. The degree of import dependency (the ratio of imports to Hong Kong to new supply) will drop from 38.9% in 2011 to about 37.8% in 2012. The total new supply (domestic addition plus imports to Hong Kong) for 2012 was approximately 6.27 million tons, slightly lower than the 6.3 million tons in 2011.
With no increase in supply, downstream demand has grown steadily. From January to October 2012, the total volume of domestic plastic films was 7,927,100 tons, a substantial increase of 14.6% from 6,913,900 tons in the same period of 2011; the total amount of agricultural films was 1,282,200 tons, an increase of 3.21 from 12.423 million tons in the same period of 2011. %. From the perspective of growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of agricultural films has slowed down significantly, while the growth rate of plastic film production is still relatively high. The last two months of the year were the traditional peak season. In the fourth quarter of last year, plastics inventories fell by more than 150,000 tons. In 2012, from the interviews with the author, the peak season is still expected. It is expected that the production of plastic film will still have an increase of 14% to 15% in 2012, while the increase in agricultural film is relatively small, or almost the same as the previous year.
It is because the supply side is basically flat and the demand side is growing steadily. Plastics inventory has been declining.
New Capacity Launch Affects Supply and Demand in 2013
After the new capacity was digested in the first three quarters of 2011 and 2012, plastics entered the stage of new capacity launch from October 2012. First, in October 2012, Daqing Petrochemicalâ€™s 300,000-ton capacity was put into operation. Fushun Petrochemical, which had been producing â€œhard-to-produceâ€ at the end of October and beginning of November, was put into production, with a production capacity of 450,000 tons. According to the plan, in the first half of 2013, there were 300,000 tons of Wuhan Petrochemical and Sichuan Refinery. The original plan was to start production in Sichuan Refining in January next year. Wuhan Petrochemical started production in February, but the information the author currently holds is that Wuhan Petrochemical has to postpone it until June.
Although the demand side is divided into two parts, domestic demand and direct plastics export, plastic direct exports are less. The estimation of downstream demand is more difficult, mainly because the raw materials in the downstream manufactured products are not single and the published production data are not differentiated based on raw materials. From the data of the past 12 years, agricultural film production had a negative growth before 2005, especially in 2004. Sudden outbreak in 2005, production increased by 18.4%. After that, the rate of decline was still positive, and it was until 2011 that there was a slight negative growth again. However, the negative growth this year was related to the high film production in December of 2010. Vegetable film production in 2012 is expected to increase slightly from 2011. The frequent occurrence of natural disasters and the increase of domestic consumption capacity are the driving forces for the demand for agricultural films. Taking into account the large fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products and the current consumption scale of agricultural films, I believe that the demand for agricultural films was even or slightly higher in 2012 than in 2012. There is a slightly lower probability than in 2012, but there is no possibility of a substantial drop. In addition to the 0.2% decline in the impact of the financial crisis in 2008, plastic films have maintained growth in the past 12 years. In addition to the growth rate of 6% in 2011, the growth in other years was more than 10% in all other years, and the growth rate in 7 years was over 15%.
The growth momentum of plastic film comes from two aspects: on the one hand, due to the increase in the use of the same field and the expansion of plastic film applications. Because plastic films are used in a wide range of areas, it is difficult to count and measure them one by one, but they generally depend on the speed of economic expansion. On the other hand, it depends on technological progress and consumer spending habits. Although it is more difficult for China's economy to maintain high growth of more than 8% in 2013, it is impossible to decline to 7%, and from the perspective of growth rate, the contribution to the increase in the consumption of plastic film in the second may be significant. Therefore, I believe that the consumption of plastic film will still maintain a rapid growth, the growth rate is likely to be more than 10%, but more than 15% growth is also more difficult. According to this estimate, taking into account the respective proportions of downstream plastics consumption, combined with the situation in the past two years, the author believes that the demand for plastics in 2013 was about 7% to 10% higher than that in 2012.
In 2012, the total actual consumer demand downstream of plastics was around 6.7 million tons. According to the estimated growth rate of 7% to 10%, the demand for plastics in 2013 was 7.1 million to 7.3 million tons. The domestic supply is 4.9 million tons, and the domestic supply gap is about 2.2 million to 2.4 million tons, which needs to be compensated by imports. This corresponds to an import dependency of 31% to 32%. If the import volume to Hong Kong next year is basically the same as in 2011 and 2012, considering the current inventory level, the overall supply and demand balance will be balanced. If the dependence on imports cannot fall below 35%, the pattern of supply and demand for plastics will be significantly loose in 2013.
Coal Chemical Industry Cannot Affect Plastic Supply and Demand
Coal chemical plant will not affect the supply and demand of plastics. The reasons are as follows: (1) The plant is usually put into operation later than planned, and the technical complexity of coal chemical industry is relatively long. The commissioning commissioning stage is relatively long. The Baotou Shenhua Group's polyethylene plant has been commissioned. 8 months before the official production; (2) Even if put into production, the supply of 300,000 tons of production capacity will be very limited, and even if the equipment of Baotou Shenhua begins to produce plastics, its production capacity is only 150,000 tons, and the impact will not be significant. More than 200,000 tons, the impact on the supply and demand pattern is relatively small; (3) the market takes time to accept the plastics produced by coal chemical industry, I understand that Shenhua's HD polyethylene market acceptance is not particularly satisfactory. The impact on prices is even smaller. First, the small supply will have a limited impact on the supply and demand pattern. Secondly, the investment in coal chemical plants will be higher, and the fixed costs will be added to the products. Although the cost of coal chemical raw materials is low, the fixed costs are added. After the petrochemical price advantage is limited.
According to the current plan, there will be 1.5 million tons of coal chemical polyethylene equipment put into operation in 2014, of which 450,000 tons will be plastic devices. If it is put into operation on schedule, the impact on the market in the second half of 2014 or 2015 will gradually show up.
In 2013, the supply and demand side of plastic is facing the pressure of new production capacity. If new production capacity is put on schedule, the pattern of plastic supply and demand in the first half of 2013 will be loosened and inventory will be accumulated. In the third quarter or the inflection point of the supply and demand side, the situation that new supply is greater than demand began to change. The more concerned coal (including methanol) olefins are unlikely to affect the market in 2013. Considering the positive impact of the development of shale oil and other technologies on the supply of crude oil and the unfavorable situation of the global economy (mainly reflected in the sovereign debt of the Eurozone, Japan and the United States, and the slowdown in Chinaâ€™s economic growth will continue to develop in 2013, not yet There are very effective measures and other factors have a negative impact on demand, and the operating focus of crude oil will be lower than this year. Under this drag, plus the plastic itself supply and demand surface tends to be loose, the center of gravity of the plastic will be reduced, the main operating range should still be in the 9000 to 11000. Unilateral operations pay more attention to the opportunities brought about by seasonality. In addition to continuing to focus on intertemporal opportunities in arbitrage, especially the 1309 and 1401 contracts, industrial customers can also pay attention to the future of plastics and low-density polyethylene, plastics and HD polyethylene. Arbitrage opportunities.
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